Cognitive Processes in Quantitative Estimation: Analogical Anchors and Causal Adjustment

Quantities are ubiquitous and an important part of our understanding of the world. How do people solve quantitative estimation problems? A large body of psychological research addressing this question is based on the anchoring and adjustment paradigm (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974). Based on an analysis of verbal protocols of experts engaging in estimation tasks, we claim that similarity and analogy play important roles in quantitative estimation. A similar example for which the answer is known provides an analogical anchor, and comparison provides the grist for making causal adjustments. We present KNACK, a computational model of analogical estimation. Our theoretical analysis of causal adjustments suggests that they might not always be insufficient, as they are based on a discrepancy between assumed strength of causal relationships and that exists in the world (Kareev et al, 1997).